Oh Dear Arsenal

Crazy game at the Emirates with Arsenal seemingly totally in control at half-time with them being 2-0 up and totally dominating the game. Second half Tottenham just came out and played well and with a helping hand from Fabregas they came back into the game and ended up winning 3-2.

Mr.Wenger wasn't too happy it seems...

Dirty little arber

I've been undertaking in a bit of arbitrage betting (or arb betting for short) over the last couple of days. From my general observations this practise is generally frowned upon and you'll get your bookmakers accounts closed pretty sharply if you undertake it to any great degree. But I personally favour the Back to Lay arb which is taking a bigger price with a bookmaker and then laying it for a shorter price on Betfair (even with the commission charge taken into account). Essentially it's much like any trade on Betfair but instead you've guaranteed yourself a profit before the event as even started, this is where the great competition in the bookmaker industry comes to your advantage as they will generally try and compete on price where they see fit now that there's various odds comparison sites out there that punters have become aware of.

The typical arb for me at least is usually only around the 2% mark, but it is totally risk free money providing you place the bets correctly and use a reliable bookmaker(s). Don't know whether I could see myself doing this long-term because there's limits and the highly likelihood of accounts getting closed which don't make it appeal to me, then again there's no harm in the occasional arb that will cover the cost of your lunch or go back into your betting bank. Read more about arbitrage betting here

I actually had a poor day trading on Wednesday which was part of the reason why I decided to do a few arbs and step away from the trading for a while. November performance still looking good but a couple of poor trades knocked me a bit and I think I'm better stepping back from the trading for a while.

My football bets are up on my blogabet page for this weekend, main fancies are in opposing West Brom at home to Stoke and betting Man City with a draw no bet away at Fulham. My Premier League picks have gradually improved over the last couple of weeks hopefully another decent profit can help me reduce my overall loss so far this season.

I think Sparky's Fulham will find it difficult up against his old employers.

My Tip of the Weekend: Man City (DNB) @ 1.72 (Coral)

Mid-November update

Glad to say at the mid-point of November the profit figure is considerable won't reveal the figure now but I'll go as far as to say if I have a half-decent second half to the month it will be one of my best months for the year. A lot of the profit as actually come from my football trading and my amazingly lucky £1k profit week on Betfair, since then I've toned down my trading down a bit. I've actually placed a few long-term bets on the horse racing one on Denman for the Hennessy at 7.00 on Betfair for £50, price already dropped but not much liqudity since it's ante-post market, Expect him to be much shorter come the day of the race all things being well I'll be able to lay off for a free bet probably. Also had a few smaller bets on the Grand National antepost, a long time off the race itself but just backed a couple I liked the look of from last year's race and providing they run they'll surely be much shorter come closer the time.

I've actually lots of Uni work and assignments I really should be getting on with but the weekend is always spent watching sport whether I happen to be betting on it or not. Plenty of drama this weekend from the not totally unexpected demolition of Harrison by Haye to the climax of the Formula One season. Glad Alonso didn't win it can't stand the guy, decent season for Jenson and Lewis hopefully they'll have an improved car next season and therefore have a better chance of the battling for the title. But well done to Vettel he was the fastest man throughout the season and probably deserved it on balance, would have won it a lot easier had he not had the habit of knocking himself and other competitors out of various races.

To finish I can't miss commenting on the remarkable scenes from Stamford Bridge. I've watched plenty of Sunderland away from home and they have been nothing but average at best this calender year. But a superb, energetic display saw them beat Chelsea quite comfortably in the end and the 0-3 scoreline did not flatter them if anything it could have been more! Don't buy the whole Chelsea had lots of players missing excuse, every team has players missing and there's no sympathy for Chelsea who should have quality squad depth with their resources. Fair play to Sunderland, didn't help my fantasy football team much though, thought Ashley Cole should have at least got an assist for the third it was a brilliant cross...

A good impression of what a Sunderland 3-0 layer might look like

Once a thug always a thug

Just a quick comment on everyone's favourite footballing personality Joey Barton. He's had more "chances" to redeem himself than I care to count. For the record I actually think he is a decent footballer when he doesn't resort to the sort of behaviour we saw against Blackburn last night.

Clear punching an opposition player straight in the stomach for no apparent reason in front of dozens TV cameras that have ever angle covered is just plain silly. The referee or his officials didn't spot this but he'll surely be in for a 3 match ban (should be more in my opinion) with the aid of the video evidence.

It was more suited to a boxing ring than a football pitch. Maybe we should let Barton take Harrison's place for the big fight on Saturday I'd love to see how tough he thinks he is then.

David "The Hayemaker" Haye

Miserable Mondays

Don't know whether it's just my perception but I definitely seem to think that Mondays always seem to bring the worst of the weather. Howling wind and rain crashing against my bedroom window this morning when my alarm clock goes off at 8am, would have been so easy just to stay in bed and forget Uni for the day. Somehow managed to get myself up and into my lectures on time. Although my heart really isn't in it that much anymore. I'd much rather be at home analysing bets and trading market on Betfair. I've had a very good run on Betfair recently, mainly on football trading matches available to watch on Betfair Video. I can't help but think I've been highly fortunate in the process, maybe sometimes ignorance is bliss. Betting purely on what you see on the pitch rather than any pre-made presumptions about each team may be the way to go. My Premier League bets have been awful recently and I'd consider to have very good knowledge of that league yet I've been trading highly successfully on obscure South American and other top European league that I don't pretend to have a great knowledge about.

Here's my quite remarkable Betfair P/L for the last 7 days. Luck or skill? I'd be leaning towards the former that's why I've withdrawn a large chunk of the profits (nicely boosts my horse racing system funds for the new year) and am going reduce my stakes slightly for future trades. But for the first time ever I feel I've been trading really well, think I mentioned my 1.03 lay in a previous post I've had a few similar ones since then but not quite as short as that. Had some lucky escapes also though the Setbul v Rio Ave game comes to mind with a last minute goal from the visitors turning a £200+ loss into a £200+ profit.

How to net yourself £1k in a week (the unorthodox way)

Kauto back with a win

I've decided this blog as become to football-oriented so a little entry on the horse racing here.

Nice to see Kauto Star back in action after he of course crashed out of the Gold Cup in his last race. You'd never have guessed that with his performance at Down Royal today, he jumped perfectly and showed his class to overcome the field. Although the one to take out of the race is definitley Sizing Europe in opinion, always been a fan of this horse and glad to see it stay the trip. Be interesting to see where they go with it from here, worth an entry into the Gold Cup based on that performance. Everything for me is always building upto Cheltenham which is the only major time of the race calender where a waiver from systemtic approach and get out my form studying hat. Could be in for a very good line-up for this year's Gold Cup with old boys Kauto Star and Denman as well as last year's winner Imperial Commander plus the up-and-coming younger horses. However plenty of big races before then including the Hennessy in which Kauto may run in according to Paul Nicholls.

Will Kauto run in the Hennessy?

Football Madness

Today for me summed up why I love football so much. That can sometimes be forgotten briefly among the process of betting, but football at his best is pure entertainment or the highest form in my opinion.

Firstly I'll start with a game most people probably won't have witnessed. An amazing game in Serie B between Sassuolo and Siena which saw four goals in the opening twenty minutes. The away side Siena scored shortly before half-time to go 3-2 ahead. The second half was still lively despite no goals being scored up until injury time that is, when the home side Sassuolo scored not just once but twice to win 4-3! What makes it even sweeter is the fact I had laid Siena at around 1.50 and then laid the draw after it went 3-3 at my lowest ever successful lay price of 1.03.

Just when I think I'd seen enough football entertainment for the day I watched the Premier Legaue match between Blackpool and West Brom. I actually expected this to be a good game with two attacking sides and the game didn't disappoint what with nine men West Brom battling hard in a thrilling end-to-end game. Had a small lay of West Brom in this game pre-kick off as well as my over 2.5 goals bet I took earlier in the week. So overall very good day, made more money today than in the last month put together, crazy stuff really. Making money is a lot more fun than doing my boring Uni work I must admit.

Good day's work