Wednesday, 8 September 2010

Betting works against human nature

I'm sure you've all heard the statistic (I use the word statistic loosely here) that 99% of a gamblers lose money and that only 1% (possibly less in reality) actually make money from gambling. There's a good reason for that, a large majority of people see betting or gambling simple as a leisure activity and putting on a ten-team accumulator on the footy each weekend in a sense is no different than having a quid lucky dip on the national lottery. For some people this is as far as it goes and betting is simply a mechanism to make the weekend football results a little more interesting. But for some people it goes beyond that point, gambling takes over their life and that's when it becomes dangerous and sadly it can destroy a person's life rather rapidly.

You could blame the bookmakers for their continuous advertising and glamorising of the industry, anybody who watched the ad breaks during the world cup will know what I mean. I'm by no means the biggest fan of bookmakers in general, but after all they are only businesses and the main objective of any business is to make profit, and that they'll continue to do at the hands of the uneducated and sometimes frail and unaware punters who fail to grasp the key concept of value.

I'm not trying to sound arrogant or indeed highly educated in the world of gambling. I know very little on the face of things but I've learnt that getting good prices and only taking bets that offer value is the only way to make a profit, either that or adopting a systematic approach that does all this work for you. It makes me feel somewhat sick that people pour their high earned into FOBTs (Fixed Odds Betting Terminals) and the like when the basic laws of probability says in the long-term they are only going to lose money, not even Derren Brown could turn a profit on one of these machine which frequent every high-street bookmaker.

I come to my main point now, that is that the human mind and instinct isn't meant to bet and gamble successfully. Instinct will tell you to only bet on something you think will win, regardless of the odds. Human emotions get depressed and upset at a losing run of bets and the chase instinct takes over. Human emotions get happy and excited at a winning run and the thought off winning money from betting.

I myself have fallen demon to these human instincts on a number of occasions in my betting. It's alright and good breaching the words discipline, sensible staking plan, bet on value, ect, ect. But in reality the human brain works on emotion not on numbers and on discipline. The human brain is a wonderful thing but in my opinion it is difficult to control and tame. I mentioned that only 1% (probably less) make a profit from gambling, to them I salute, I myself could be considered one even if my overall profit for gambling is minuscule. I feel I'm a rather controlled and level-minded sort of soul but even I can wander down unsafe ground at times.

I'd originally planned to trial and go full-time from next year. But at the moment I'm having doubts over that (the recent poor losing run and the depressed emotions that come from it may be talking here) but the main reason comes back to human nature. Could I trust myself not to go crazy one night and blow a small fortune? I know for a fact I have all the resources and skill I need to make a very good amount of money, maybe even enough to live from. But could you trust yourself as a "professional gambler"? With all that responsibility and the need for a strong mind and steady emotions. I've frequently mentioned the 1% figure as people who make profit for gambling, but no one knows for sure how many people of that 1% make a living off betting, I'd hazard a guess it wouldn't be very big. It's the ultimate dream for most punters, the illustrious image of the professional gambler: black coat, sunglasses, racing post under one arm and an expensive wristwatch on the other. I for sometime have dreamed of just this image but just recently I've started to wonder whether this image is not highly desirable after all and that whether to achieve this feat you have to be somewhat void of emotion and instinct.

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