Up until the middle of October, bet no. 35 I was operating a level stakes staking plan of £25 per selection. By the end of this period I was down by a signifciant amount totalling £236.42 since that point I refocused and adopted a varied staking plan based on the premise that bigger value selections should have a higher stake, with stake levels varying from £10 upto £25 in £5 intervals. Come the end of the season my loss totalled £293.33 which actually means from November through to May I was only operating at a small loss of £56.91 in comparison to the first half of the year which at least shows I have improved even if I couldn't profit from it.
Below is a graph of my cumulative profit for my Premier League bets this season:
As you can see after the very poor start I did start to pick up a little bit with my change in staking plan and approach to my selections. The period from bet 55 to about bet 110 looks a very smooth upward trend and the sort of thing I would be looking for. The later quarter of the year was a bit up and down as the graph shows but I did at least end the season quite strongly.
Here's some stats for my year's performance including breakdown week-by-week:
Overall it could be easy to pack it in and say it's not working but I'm determined to try and make my Premier League betting work. Although in my opinion I think the Premier League is probably one of the hardest football leagues to profit from because news on teams/players is so widely avaiable that you rarely see odds dramatically priced up "wrong" although there's been plenty of times this season where I've been baffled slightly by how teams have been priced up.
To finish here's three little lessons or things I've picked up on throughout the year which hopefully should help improve my betting for next season, although things are always constanstly changing.
1.) Take advantage of short-term over-reaction bias in the market - Classic case of a team that's on a great run and may be performing beyond expectations or who have just won impressively in their last game. Both Bolton & Blackpool had impressive starts to the season but by the end of it the season they ended up whereabouts they where predicted to. Opposing Blackpool & Bolton in the second half of the season would have been very fruitful indeed. Likewise I opposed Liverpool at home to Tottenham after they thrashed Fulham at Craven Cottage. They where massively backed and therefore I believe there was great value to be had backing the opposition regardless of how brilliant they may have been in their last game. Always remember to take the long-term view into account and the underlying quality of each team not just a team's short-term form.
2.) Be wary of certain teams when odds-on - I'm not one for taking odds-on bets but if do I would always be wary of backing any team that you don't consider to be amongst the best six or seven in the league. Backing mid-table sides like the likes of Stoke, Sunderland, Newcastle & Bolton at odds-on never does appeal to me, there was a lot of closely matched teams this season and I don't think any of these deserved to be priced-up odds-on at any point this season.
3.) Don't be afraid to oppose the big boys - Some people may get a bit tentative when opposing the likes of Chelsea, Man United & Arsenal but it would have been rewarded handsomely if done correctly this season. Man United away form was average considering they ended up Champions likewise Arsenal failed to win many a game at home this season when priced well and truely odds-on. Chelsea also had a mid-season dip which could have been taken advantage of. When certain situations arise its always worth opposing the big boys, these situations usually include after or before a big European match or maybe when they've got key players missing.
Well that's it for the season, already can't wait for the new season in August. Got the Champions League final to come on Saturday also got the Copa America in July which I shall be trying to trade on (probably unsuccessfully).
No comments:
Post a Comment