Denman's Betting Journal: Back to the Premiership

The big match this weekend is Chelsea v Man Utd but it is very difficult to call so I’m opting to leave that one alone and focus on other game form a betting perspective this weekend.

Bolton v Aston Villa
Aston Villa come into this game after a 7-1 mauling at Stamford Bridge last weekend. This was on the back of two disappointing home draws against Sunderland and Wolves. Aston Villa have a tradition in recent seasons of finishing poorly, which looks set to have cost them any hopes of fourth place just like it did last season. Also there have been rumours around this week about Martin O’Neill’s future at the club, which could have an unsettling effect on some the players. The FA cup semi-final is just around the corner and a few players may have half an eye on that as well.

Bolton have improved vastly under new management and have been very effective at home. Yes they lost 4-0 at home against Man Utd last weekend, but it was an own goal that broke the deadlock and the last few goals came about because they were chasing the game. Previous to that they had picked up ten points in four games at home, yes they weren’t teams in the same class as Aston Villa but they still performed well and were full value for their points.
With all the worrying factors I picked out for Villa and the added incentive for Bolton to pull further away from the relegation zone and into the safety of mid-table. I fancy Bolton are capable of winning this one against an out-of-form Aston Villa. Took the Bolton draw no bet as a bit of insurance meaning I’ll get my stake bet if it ends a draw.

Tip:
Bolton DNB @ 2.20 (Stan James)

Stoke v Hull City
Hull managed to pick up a vital three points against a weakened Fulham side last weekend. This game at the Britannia will be a much tougher test especially if you consider Stoke’s home form (6-5-5) against Hull’s away form (0-4-12). Hull have struggled away all season mainly because their defence seems to crack when put under any constant pressure. Stoke don’t usually win games by big margins but are capable of scrapping out results and I think they should cause Hull enough problems here to take all three points. Home win for me.

Tip:
Stoke @ 1.80 (Various)

Sunderland v Tottenham
Sunderland were outright dreadful at Anfield last Sunday. Although they are totally different team at home and have only been beaten twice at the Stadium of Light all season. Tottenham have put themselves in a good position to take fourth place after winning five games on the bounce in the league. Although away from home I always get the impression that they are bit up and down and maybe don’t finish teams off when they’ve had the chances.

Sunderland have drawn 7 of their 16 home games this season whilst Tottenham have drawn 5 of their 15 away games. I think it should be a close match and I’ll take the draw. Also going for Darren Bent anytime goalscorer, he’s in terrific form at the moment and wouldn’t it be just like football for him to pop up to haunt his old team.