End of May/ Euro 2012 Preview

Quite pleased to say I ended the month of May with a non too shabby profit of £469.29. Although it came at a bit of a cost as a couple of my bookmakers accounts got shut down. Presumably because I was taking odds just before they where cut. Might have been foolish of me to be so obvious, but I had been limited with both bookmakers previous so having my accounts closed completely wasn't a total surprise, despite me hardly turning a profit with either. This means my cumulative loss for the year is back down to just over £100. I hope a decent June could see me back in the black for the year.

My main point of the update was to give a run down of my pre-tournament bets for Euro 2012. Whilst I do take betting seriously mostly I do like an occasional fun bet know and again. Although I still try and only bet on things I think are value. These long-term tournament bets are always a bit hard to judge though mainly because the tournament only involves an handful of game for each team and an element of luck undoubtedly comes into it.

Outright Winner
For me and for many others I'm sure, the two stand out candidates are Spain & Germany. Both come into the campaign with 100% records during qualification. I lean towards favoring the Germans for the tournament, because I feel they have a more rounded team than the Spaniards and in my opinion Germany where the outstanding team in the last World Cup but came up narrowly short against Spain on that occasion. Always worth covering yourself with a potential dark house and I think Poland could be that in this tournament. Home advantage of course and as easy a group as they could have wished for. I expect them to qualify for the quarter-finals although I admit it would be something of a surprise to see them progress further, but by no means impossible and at their current odds worth a speculative punt.

Recommended Bets:
2pts on Germany @ 4.5 (Betfair)
1/2pt on Poland @ 51 (Various)

Top Goalscorers
Again the top goalscorer market is always a bit of a lottery and I don't really think there's one outstanding candidate for it this year. Given that Germany will probably rotate Klose and Gomez in the lone-role upfront, Spain without their top striker in David Villa. Whilst both Van Persie & Ronaldo seem a bit short considering their countries are in the "Group of Death". Therefore I've just gone for a few more speculative punts, although should Germany go all the way I'd fancy one of my two German selections to be thereabouts for the Golden Boot.

Recommended Bets:
1pt on Thomas Muller @ 34 (Betfair)
1pt on Lukas Podolski @ 38 (Betfair)
1pt on Andrei Arshavin @ 126 (Coral)
1pt on Wesley Sneijder @ 74 (Betfair)
1pt on Ztlan Ibrahimovic @  51 (Various)

An Update!

First and foremost thanks for all the comments on my previous post, it's nice to know that somebody at least may be benefiting from my blog and that you are so willing to offer advice.

I've not updated in ages so I'll firstly round of April which came in with a profit of £252.24, although I admit this was mostly down to luck rather than any sort of wisdom I think. (bad trading, lucky profits)

With the first week of May came the end of the Premier League football season and thus my football bets. Here's a graph displaying my performance since the start of February to season end.

So ended up with £25.66 profit from a starting bank of £100. The profit yield was a fairly healthy 6.29% and the average price taken with my selections was almost exactly evens (2.017). I'm happy enough with that, I watch a lot of Premier League football but the season before I didn't finish the season profitable so the knowledge itself doesn't always guarantee you'll turn a profit. Think some of the key themes I noticed this season was teams like Liverpool & Chelsea where continuously under-price given the poor rum of form both teams endured during the season. In addition backing Newcastle every game would have surely given you a nice profit, they where often over-priced presumably because they performed a lot better and maintained for the large part their good form throughout the entire season.

Right my future plans now. Well it is gambling related but not exactly outright gambling as such. Some people may say it's a little bit boring and maybe not in the spirit of the gambling game. But I've recently being taking full advantage of any bookmakers offers and also taking advantage of differing price lines between both bookmaker Vs. bookmaker and bookmaker Vs. exchange. I've been doing it for the last month and turning over a decent profit without having to do anything spectacular. I admit the work involved can be time-consuming but I'm quietly enjoying it. It keeps me in the gambling world and as a result I'm getting an even closer look at how prices shift and change at various times. I'm also looking at maybe developing an horse racing systems out of any reoccurring prices patterns I may come across.

That's keeping me fairly busy at present, as well as watching the England/West Indies cricket (no betting/trading on it though). I'm also looking forward to the Euro 2012 which is rapidly approaching. I'll be having a few bets there no doubt, although I didn't do that well with my bets at the last World Cup, hopefully that taught me some lessons that I can put into practice. I shall update again just before the tournament starts with an end of May update where I shall give my views on the tournament.

The Lost Soul Returns

I shamefully have abandoned this blog for a long-time now. I kept meaning to update but never got round to it. I think I need to take a leaf out of Jim Carrey's character in Yes Man and start doing things instead of waiting for something to happen. Being a more pro-active person is definitely something I want and probably need to be.

One of the main reasons I never got round to updating is the simple fact I don't have much to say anymore, or least not stuff that I've mentioned several times in my blog before. Maybe I was foolish thinking gambling was easy way to make money. My logic says I believe that it is very difficult to make money gambling but deep down maybe I've always, maybe still do believe that there is a way to come out a winner.

I now operate no horse racing systems and I'm not tied to any sort of betting on daily basis. I still tried and failed throughout much of March to try and trade once again. I re-read a book or two on the subject and thought maybe this time I could make it work. But my same old mistakes reared it's head. I've read all about the psychology and the sort of mindset needed to trade successfully. Although understanding what is needed and actually implementing it is two different things completely. I still remain bouncing back and forth between idea, one day I want to try my hardest at poker (that's took a bit of a dip recently) and the next I want to be a trader once again.

I've always been an indecisive sort of person and my mind is all over the place at present. I've taken a few steps back from gambling of late and now spend a lot less time thinking on gambling activities. On a personal note my whole life is just one big frustration at present I can't find a job anywhere, struggle to even get interviews. Tough economic times I know, but I think I'm a bright enough individual to do a very good job at anything I put my mind too. (well if you don't count gambling that is). I should probably feel guilty for spending what is effectively tax-payers money on my silly gambling dreams, but then again I spend very little money elsewhere and I'm sure other people waste money just as badly as I have.

I was contemplating this being my last post on this blog. It would be nice to see a blog finish with a definite ending. Too many blogs I've read just end abruptly and you never know what has happened to the blog poster. Probably just made a mega-mistake and doesn't want to face the punishment of reciting this in words. I'm somewhat the opposite I find typing my thoughts into words is cleansing and makes me feel better for some reason. For that alone I think I would find it difficult to stop this blog today. Although I do fear the time to let go of my gambling fantasies is quickly approaching. But it's been so ingrained in me for the four years now that it even when I've recently took a full week away it felt somewhat weird not to be thinking or hatching plans about my gambling pursuits.

One quick final note on the Grand National, I always hate how the animal activist always rear their heads every time the Grand National comes around. The truth of the matter is horse racing is sport where animals are bred specifically for racing, yes it's true all national hunt racing carry an added element of danger and horses will sadly get hurt and die. But isn't it the added amount of danger that makes The Grand National what it is. Modern day society seems to want to take the danger out of everything. Anyway it was a fantastic finish (one of the best I've ever seen), chuffed for Neptune Collognes always been a big fan of the horse and probably would have won a Gold Cup sometime but not the dominance of Kauto Star and Denman.

Pipped at the post

Loss of Direction

To be frank I'm suffering from a big sense of loss of direction at present. My sports betting/trading is quite clearly not working and I get the sad, sinking feeling of me going around in circles only to come back to the same result of me slowly losing money through my pursuits. The fact that I'm currently unemployed and stuck around the house a lot does not help the matter any.

Starting to think my plans have all been one big delusional thought. It's true that they say you should never really give up on your ambitions and your dreams, but that doesn't apply when they have proven to be largely unrealistic does it?

Do I still enjoy sports betting and trading? There's still a part of me that does, but then there's an other part of me that 's saying think of all the hours you've spent pursing this only to end up losing a decent amount of money. Sometimes difficult when you've got your heart set on something to let it go and move on. It seems I'm very close to coming to that conclusion, but there's still a little bit of drive and passion to continue. If I did however decide to pack it in, I think it would have to be completely. Don't see myself carrying on as a casual punter, be a bit like seeing your ex-girlfriend you still love on the train every day or something and always wondering what could have been or what still happen.

I'm about as close to my gambling goals as Charlie Adam's penalty was to the goal in the Carling Cup final, and I end up feeling a lot like the guy at the end of the clip.

Mistakes, Mistakes and More Mistakes

The more you think about the more you realise that gambling and trading is predominately about mistakes. The more mistakes you make the more likely you are to lose money, whether that be backing or laying something at unfavourable or your more classic mistake in placing a bet you didn't intend to. The saying goes Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Although in betting and trading you can afford to make hundreds and thousands of mistakes, basically as many mistakes as your bankroll will allow you. Sure all people make mistakes, it is often said the most successful people in the world have made big mistakes in the early career but have overcome them. But that fails to notice all the people who make big mistakes who didn't overcome and become routed down by a mistake they've made.

I know that last passage was somewhat vague but my point is that different people react differently to mistakes. The way you react to mistakes and losses in gambling/trading is one of the most important things. It fails under the all important D word again, but is deserving of a category of it's own in my view. I know from experience when I make mistakes I don't like it, it annoys me, it frustrates me, it angers me. I'm the guy banging my head on the wall after my horse is beaten by a nose. I do my best to try not get frustrated in this way, but it's almost inherent human nature that we don't like it when we are wrong, we don't like knowing that we aren't as clever as we think we are. I know I'm some steps ahead of the regular punter who simply thinks he can predict with certainty what's going to happen in a given sporting event. I know what value is. I may or may not have edge when it comes to betting and trading these days. But I know for certain that somewhat primal instinct part of my brain gets frustrated and angry far to easy. I have taken up poker recently but even in that I drifted into the same mode, I was playing my usually game and got a couple of bad beats I proceeded to go "on tilt" and play hands I would never even usually look at playing which of course resulted in further losses. Decided to take the rest of the week off after a very poor week upto Wednesday.

What I'm saying after all this time is that I realise I don't have the mindset for betting or trading. After reading up about trading in particular, it seems there is the possibility that you can train your own mind to get out of this problem. Although old habits die hard as the saying goes.

This week was another loss of £161.95 of which $11.85 (roughly £8) can be attributed to poker, the rest was simply me being a lemon trying to trade, hence the mistakes, mistakes rant. I'm not saying I'm giving up on this pursuit of mine. But I do admit to losing a bit of interest in betting and trading recently. Twinned with the realisation that my mindset is still all over the place, I've decided to take this week off largely to try and think things over and do a little more reading on trading psychology. Reading and applying are two completely different matters though, although despite all this I'm determined to remain positive.

End of January Update/ Week#5

Well I said I was due to end January in slight profit but I managed to mess that up with some ill-advised horse racing trading (I'm sure I said I should stop doing that before). This time I really do mean it thought. I've decided to split my betting upto into clear groups now. Football Trading, Football Betting, Other Sports Betting & Other Sports Trading. £100 each for the football groups and £50 for the other sports groups/ Keeping a detailed record of all bets and trades and it should show where my best areas are, although I'm pretty sure already that it will be the football.

Ended the month down £130.36 and the week down £184.83. Not much else to say other than I really need to stop with these silly blips in discipline, it's a difficult job trying to slowly make your way into decent profits. That is always the dangerous thing with discipline, you could have months of good discipline but it takes just one bad moment and you could quite literally lose at the profits and hard work in a moment of madness. Afterwards is a case of what the hell was I thinking there. Hopefully my new staking plan in place with the different groups should help me in the regard.

Just when the weather is snowy and cold it is the exact time you realise why working from home would be such a good thing. No need to go out and freeze waiting for trains or sorting out your frozen up car.

For me though the focus well and truly slipped last week and for that I'm embarrassed. One bright note once again though is my poker, profit of $11.49 for the week. Wish I could play more poker, I am upto multi-tabling three tables at a time and do try and play for a few hours each day. Although at micro-stakes I'm never going to turn over massive amounts. A couple more weeks of decent profit in my SNGs and I think the time may have come to move upto the next stake level.

Another Nearly Week

Seem to have plenty of these so called nearly weeks where it could have been a fantastic one but ends up turning into a minimal profit or loss, this week I ended down £20.92 for week and I'm more or less break even for the year so far.

My horse racing system still seem to be going a slow rate, I did however enjoy some decent profit from the Snooker Shootout, by betting pre-match. It is a simple one frame knockout competition but with certain time limits on shots and the frame as a whole which means generally the players have to play quicker than in a normal match of snooker. Clearly evident from what I've seen it is a little like a lottery, because one small mistake could cost a player and the majority of the players in the competition are capable of getting a 40+ break, which is usually enough to win a frame. It was fun to watch, not quite the World Championships but an interesting concept I think.

Meanwhile on the cricket I traded both Australia v India and the Pakistan v England test matches. Which wasn't really good for sleeping patters, I never stayed up all night and watched both tests. Just usually tried to catch the sessions that I deemed important. I was with Australia from early on against India and my position never really changed. The Pakistan/England game was a bit different, started off by being against the draw and then backed England when they went out to around 2.50. Ended up leaving my book with massive red on the draw, medium red on Pakistan and Big green on England. Funny thing was if England had around 200 or more to chase in the final innings I'd have almost definitely traded out. But as it was I let it run and well the rest was history really. I actually couldn't get onto the computer at the time England had collapsed to around 30-4, I really wanted and should have laid my bet off there. Apparently I found out after England where 1.50 something at the point, which surely was a big lay given how the top order fared. Then again I really should have laid at the start of the innings with England @ 1.20, I was actually considering that and would have overlaid to ensure bigger profits on Pkaistan had I choosen to do that. Which makes the fact I didn't lay off at all sound even more stupid. Overall was down £30 on the week, but a wise decision or a non-England collapse world could have seen that be a comfortable £160+ profit

Didn't trade any on tennis this match, But I imagine trading was fruitful if you know what your doing. If the final was anything to go by, simply laying who you think was going to win at given point in time would seemingly have been the best strategy. So many swings in that game made for great entertainment. Wanted Rafa to win slightly more, but fair play to Novak two gruelling matches in the space of a couple of days. Think he probably earnt the title and a little rest maybe.

My poker challenge is still on going (think I'll stick something in the side bar about my running totals). This week I netted a profit of $8.08, which is decent considering I never played that many games with me being busy with the cricket and all. Much more time to play this week so hopefully I'll yield a greater profit.