Wednesday 17 March 2010

Cheltenham - Day Two

Two winners out of my selections yesterday including Chief Dan George at 33/1!

Hopefully more of the same for day two.

13:30 National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup
There's plenty of difficult races to find winners from but this would just about top the list. All the horses are novices and ridden by amateur riders over 4miles, as the cliche goes anything can happen. However there's a a atrong trend towards LTO winners (24 out of the last 26) and that seriously needs to be considered when looking at selections. My first selection is Mobaasher who has a win at Cheltenham to his name, which is always a major plus as Cheltenham is a very unique track, it won well last time out at Plumpton. If it jumps well it should go close. My second seleciton in this race is Noakard De Veeze who has been in fine form this season and the longer trip should suit. Final seleciton is Poker De Sivola who doesn't have the greatest form on paper but has ran over 4m, which should be a major benefit over thoose who haven't. Not one to get heavily involved in but worth a few small E/W bets.
Selections:
Mobaasher 12/1 (Ladbrokes)
Noakard De Veeze 41/1 (Betfair)

Poker De Sivola 21/1 (Betfair)



14:05 Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle
Again some key trends to look at about this race. A strong trend for 6 year old winners (7 out of the last 10) and winners over the age of six are very rare (only one since 1974). Two more important trends, winners tend to come from the top six in the bettting and previous winners have finished 1st or 2nd LTO. My first choice seleciton in this is Quel Esprit, he's got good experience over hurdles and appears to continue to improve. My second seleciton in this race is Finians Rainbow who will be against it in trying to over-turn Nicky Henderson's 0-20 recor din this race. Also a little outside chance for Ghizao, trip a bit of uncertain but has been impressive in its previous races.
Selections:
Quel Esprit 4/1 (Betfair)
Finians Rainbow 6/1 (Various)

Ghizao 20/1 (Various)



14:40 RSA Chase
A novice chase over 3m which is usually ran at strong pace. A key trend is that 13 of the last 15 winners were aged 7 or 8. The race however in the past as often thrown up a number of big-priced winners, however the last 3 runs have all been won by the favourite. Some very good horses in this race but I'm going for Punchestown, the top-class hurdler who has been impressive over fences. My second choice is Diamond Harry, again who is a good hurdler and is open ti improvement as a chaser. Final choice is a real long shot with Little Josh, who maybe can sneak a place if a few don't make it round.
Selections:
Punchestown 11/4 (Various)
Diamond Harry 13/2 (Various)
Little Josh 66/1 (Various)


15:20 - Queen Mother Champion Chase
The feature race of day two and probably one of if not the most exicting races of the festival. Some key trends to look at, 26 of the last 28 winners started at single-figure odds and 19 of the last 25 winners had been placed at the Festival before. Master Minded is the clear favourite and easy to understand way but I'm happy to oppose it here with some other selections. My first selection is Kalahari King who I've always been a big fan of and the second is Padydeplasterer who's edged Kalahari King in last year's Arkle.
Selections:
Kalahari King 6.4 (Betfair)
Padydeplasterer 11/1 (Betfair)


16:00 Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle
Looking at the trends in this race it seems that a lot of outsiders win, only 1 win favourite has won in the last 15 renewals. My first chocie in this one is Quantititiveeasing who has got a good record over hurdles and should go well. My second choice is Andytown who has a win under course and distance to his name likewise with Naiad du Misselot, who's my third and final selection.
Selections
Quantititiveeasing 8/1 (Various)
Andytown 33/1 (Various)
Naiad du Misselot 40/1 (SportingBet)


16:40 Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurlde
Not really many trends to be seen from this race although only 4 horses at under 10/1 have finishe din ther first five in the last seven runnings. See my four selections below in order of preference.

Selections
Bothy 14/1 (Various)
Fin Vin De Leu 36/1 (Betfair)
Diktalina 41/1 (Betfair)


17:15 Weatherby's Champion Bumper
Strong trend for LTO winner as well as Irish horses. Taking that it into account I've gone for the impressive Drumbalo as my first choice and the Willie Mullins trained Day Of A Life Time and Up Ou That as my back-up selections.
Selections
Drumbalo 10/1 (William Hill)
Day Of A Life Time 13/1 (Betfair)
Up Ou That 44/1 (Betfair)

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