Sunday 11 April 2010

Chelsea v Bolton

Chelsea didn't play to their best in the FA Cup semi-final against Villa which makes it all the more frightening that they still managed to win 3-0. Chelsea have only two blemishes on their home record in the league this season, that loss against Man City and draw against Everton.

Bolton are still in a relegation battle although I'm sure this is a game they won't be expecting to get anything from. Their away form is no where near as good as their home, bar that good win against West Ham they've been reasonably poor away from home recentley. They also have a tendancy to ship goals and lose by bigger margains when they try and chase the game after going behind. They lost 3-0 at Blackburn and 4-0 at both Tottenham in (the FA Cup replay) and at Sunderland.

Chelsea are in great scoring form at the moment with Drogba, Lampard and Malouda all in top form. Can't see past a runaway Chelsea victory here although the odds I find are particularly poor the Chelsea (-2) on the Asian Handicap is best priced at around 1.77, which doesn't offer any value to me. I'd much rather go for Chelsea to win to nil @1.80, think this price will shorten Boylesports price is much longer and seems out of line with whats on offer at other bookmakers and is very good value in my opinion. My main reason behind the bet being Bolton have a poor scoring record away from home scoring only two goals (both in the West Ham game) in their last eight away games. Whilst Chelsea are missing a number defenders due to injury and they have leaked more goals at home this season than in recent seasons. I still think they should keep a clean sheet here because in their last couple of games their defense has looked really strong, with Cech back between the sticks and the back-up players in defense have played a number of games back-to-back together and have formed a solid back four.

I mentioned Lampard and Malouda earlier as being two players in good goalscoring form and I can see them continuing that trend against Bolton. I'll back both of them to score at anytime, and I only need one of them to score to guarantee a profit from these two bets which sounds a pretty good bet to me.

Tips:
Chelsea to win with a clean sheet @ 1.80 (Boylesports) Anytime Goalscorer - Frank Lampard @ 2.25 (Bet365) Anytime Goalscorer - Florent Malouda @ 2.75 (Bet365)

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