Thursday 8 April 2010

Premiership, FA Cup and the Grand National

A big weekend of sports ahead with crucial games in the Premiership as well as the FA Cup finals. Not forgetting the Grand National, the most famous horse race in the world and it just happens to be one of the hardest to predict! I'll start with Saturday's Premiership action first of all.

Hull City v Burnley
Hull's home record for the season is decent enough (6-4-5) they won convincing enough against Fulham in their last home game without ever really dominating. Their last Premiership game was a tough trip against Stoke and they understandably lost there (I backed the Stoke win in fact) although in truth their performance was actually okay and Stoke had to battle hard to take all three points.

Burnley on the other hand have totally fallen to bits over recent games. Brian Laws doesn't appear to have the same motivation skills that Owen Coyle had drilled into the Burnley team. At the beginning of the season Burnley managed to pick up a number of impressive results, especially at home. But they have dropped away badly in the second half of the season and even their home form as suffered, the same home form which was very good during the first half of the season. They looked totally shell shocked by the hammering dished out by Man City last week, their defending was all over the place and they were lucky it wasn't more than just the six.

This is Burnley in general terms but if we look at their away form it paints an even worse image. They've not won a single away game all season and have only managed one point from sixteen away trips. On the back of the mauling they got last week and their dire away form it's impossible for me to fancy Burnley in this game. Hull's home record is solid if not spectucular and they should have enough to beat Burnley here.

Tip:
Hull @ 1.75 (PaddyPower)

West Ham v Sunderland
West Ham put in a very good performance against an Everton team who have impressed in recent weeks. They battled back twice from going behind and showed great spirit, spirit which has been missing in their recent games. Sunderland won in what can only be described as a very odd match against Tottenham in which three penalties were awarded to Sunderland, Bent converted the first but missed the following two. They ended up winning 3-1 but in truth the scoreline should have been much greater. Sunderland at home are a reasonably good team but away from home they've been poor throughout the season. No more so than in the 3-0 defeat at Anfield in their last away game, yes they were up against quality players in Torres and co. but they still played really poorily. Liverpool could have easily hit double figures with the amount of chances they had in the first half alone!

Sunderland's away record reads the following (1-4-11) and they've got nothing really left to play for as they are in the safety of mid-table after recent wins. West Ham in contrast have everything to play and should be really fired up for this game and desperatley need three points here in their fight for survival. West Ham have flopped on me a number of times this season but I'm chancing them once again here on the back of the performance at Goodison Park last week.

Tip:
West Ham @ 2.10 (Various)

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Grand National
Always a very exciting races, Ive narrowed down my selections a bit, true it is very much a lottery but I like to go through the card and look at form, trends, ect and try and find the winner. Don't really do E/W bets just back a number for the outright win, narrowed it down to the following shortlist:

Madison Du Berlias (80) - The class horse in the race with plenty of Grade 1 race experience. The trends are firmly against it carrying top weight but I think a horse of this class shouldn't be over-looked at the price. Fell in the 2008 national but is usually a sound jumper.

Vic Venturi (32) - Impressive winner ar Fairyhouse last time out. As won over national fences in the past which has got to be major plus. The big weight again a negative if you look at the trends.

Comply Or Die (26) - Got to be respected for 2008 national winner and last years 2nd. Up in the weights but previous experience is always a major advatange.

Niche Market (22) - Very impressive third in the Hennessey behind Denman and What A Friend. Last year's Irish Grand National winner and you've got to think it will be thereabouts if it gets round.

My Will (55) - 3rd in last year's Grand National whilst not in the best of form this year it still could prove a danger.

Snowy Morning (17.5) - I've backed this the last two years, finished on both occassions 9th in last year's and 3rd in 2008. Down in the weights from last year and decent enough form recentley.

Character Building (21) - Always thought this horse as good potential. Good win at Cheltenham last year, dissapointing last time out but was well fancied prior to it's late withdrawal last year. Should be suited to the race.

Eric's Charm (65) - The jumping would be of slight concern with this one, managed to blunder to victory last time out. Looks to have good stanmia so the trip shouldn't be a worry.

Arbor Supreme (21) - As previous form over 3m+ and put in a decent enough prep run last time out.

Maljimar (42) - Hasn't run since third at Cheltenham over the cross county course in December. But seems to go best when fresh and does like good ground.

Irish Raptor (40) - Nigel Twiston-Davies was talking up the chances of this one. It's won over the national fences and seems too love it round Aintree was also leading whe blundered in Beacher Handicap Chase last year over national fences. If that can be excused you've got to feel it's got a good chances.

Cerium (75) - If you believe reports it managed 5th last year after sustaining a fractured skull. Same weight this year a similiar performance could see it thereabouts.

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