Monday 26 April 2010

Not long to go now.

We enter the next the last rouind of Prmeiership things and there's still two major things to be decided, who will get 4th place and who will win the league.

Birmingham v Burnley
Birmingham are on a poor run of results but in truth in their last game against Aston Villa they were unlucky not to come away from the game empty handed. First half was a fairly equal game but second half Birmingham started to dominate and had numerous chances and they would have been ahead but for a string of saves for Brad Freidel and clearances of the line. They then gave away a dubious looking penalty and lost the game 1-0 to their local rivals.

Burnley on the other hand had their relegation confirmed with a 4-0 home defeat against Liverpool. Truth be told Burnley were well and truely in the game first half, but a couple of Steven Gerrard goals shortly after half time saw the game go beyond their reach and a few more defensive lapses allowed Liverpool to add two more. It's true that sometimes teams play better once relegation has been confirmed because there's no pressure on them. But in someways there's no pressure on Birmingham in this game also, they've had a superb season and can guarantee a top half finish with a win here.

Birmingham's home record is fantastic although they have had a lot of draws along the way. Birmingham aren't usually big scorers but they played well offensively against Aston Villa and if they put in a similiar performance against Burnley they have a good chance to score a number of goals.

Burnley have been poor on the road all season and I can't see that changing against a Birmingham side who are strong at home. Fancy Birmingham to win by more than the one goal so I'm taking the Asian Handicap line at Birmingham (-1).

Tip:
Birmingham(-1) @ 1.95 (SBOBET)


Portsmouth v Wolves
Portsmouth fought back well to gain a draw against Bolton. They could have so easily just took their foot off the gas and played out for the 2-0 defeat but instead they came back and Dindane grabbed two goals. Portsmouth players are fighting for their place in the team for FA Cup final and therefore still have something to play for. They've also been allowed to play with more freedom in recent games and thier last two games have gone over 2.5 goals.

Wolves were probably fornate to get a draw against Blackburn after being seocnd-best for the majority of the game. They are safe now and manager McCarthy may decide for a more attacking line-up in this game, they have been playing 4-5-1 effectively and have been stronger defensively as a result but cause few problems going forward. I suspect with no pressure on either team we may see a more opening game than is expected. I'm therefore going for over 2.25 goals it gives me a little insurance in case there's only two goals and I fancy the price is currentley too big.

I'm also taking Portsmouth on the Asian Handicap (-0.25), feel Wolves performances have dipped slightly in recent games and Pompey are sure to be up for this one as it's their last home game in the Premiership and they'll want to give their fans something to shout about.

Tips:
Portsmouth (-0.25) @ 2.17 (10bet)
Over 2.25 goals @ 2.03 (12bet)



Sunderland v Man Utd
This is the later of the two Sunday games and Man Utd will go into this game knowing the result of the Chelsea game. Regardless of that result they need a win if they want to stay in the title chase. Man United seem to have the luck and the know how to win games when not playing at their best, they scored a last minute goal against Man City and didn't play their best football against Tottenham but came away with three points. Think Sunderland present a really difficult challenge for Man Utd here, they have a very good home record, very similiar to that of Blackburn who held a Rooney-less Man Utd to a draw at Ewood Park. Man Utd go into this game more than likely without Wayne Rooney and that has got to be a big blow to them. Sunderland are safe in mid-table and can go out and just play and try and cause an upset here and they've got good attacking players as well as Craig Gordon in goal, who's been one of the best keepers in the legaue since his return from injury. The pressure will all be on Mna Utd here and I think Sunderland may be able to take advantage. Sunderland have won their last three home games and including an impressive 3-1 win over Tottenham. Earlier in the season they beat both Arsenal and Liverpool at the Stadium Of Light which shows they have the ability to challenge the big boys on their home patch. I'm taking the Sunderland (+1.25) asian handicap here. Think it will be a tight game and I can see a draw or one goal win either way. A one goal win by Man Utd will still see me in profit and I think if they do win it will only be by the one goal as they aren't as effective gong forward without Rooney.

Tip:
Sunderland (+1.25) @ 2.00 (188bet)


Wigan v Hull City
Hull City are down now and surely won't be relishing a trip to Wigan who completed that remarkable comeback against Arsenal in their last home game. Hull's away record reads (0-5-13) which is a major reaosn why they won't be a Premiership team next year. Wigan are safe now and they put in a decent performance away at West Ham last week. With their safety ensured their players should be more relaxed and they have enough attacking options to cause Hull problems and I can see them winning here. A few Wigan players have been linked with big clubs and the Wigan chairman Dave Whelan said he won't stop players moving if a bigger clubs come calling. Therefore a few of their players will be looking to impress and put themselves in the shop window if you like.
Tip: Wigan @ 1.85 (SportingBet)


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